A few people have asked why I have become so “bullish” about Africa. My years in international development and governance have shown me something clearly: policy choices matter, institutional strength matters, and narrative shapes outcomes more than most people admit.
Africa’s story has long been dominated by crisis language such as conflict, corruption and fragility. These labels travel globally and quietly shape how risk is priced, how governments are treated and how its people are valued, and how the continent is engaged. Some actors benefit from a narrative that keeps Africa in a permanent state of dependency. The long term cost to us is enormous.
But the data tells a very different story, one that rarely gets the microphone.
Five of the eight countries projected to account for more than half of global population growth between now and 2050 are in Africa, according to UNECA. By 2030, sub-Saharan Africa’s contribution to the increase in the global labour force will exceed that of the rest of the world combined, according to the World Economic Forum.
The African Development Bank’s 2024 outlook places eleven of the world’s twenty fastest growing economies in Africa including Niger, Senegal, Libya, Rwanda, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Benin, Djibouti and Tanzania. Under AfCFTA, the World Bank estimates the agreement could lift 30 million Africans out of extreme poverty and generate 450 billion dollars in income by 2035 if implementation continues. And Africa holds 60 percent of the world’s best solar resources but only 1 percent of installed solar PV capacity according to the Energy Institute. That gap is either a failure or the single biggest infrastructure opportunity on the planet.
Of course, the fundamentals are not all positive. Some of these same fast growing economies including Ethiopia and Niger carry real fiscal and debt fragility. The IMF has flagged overlapping monetary and external vulnerabilities across the region even as growth accelerates.
Being bullish does not mean being blind. But something important is shifting.
Rwanda, Mauritius, Morocco, Nigeria, Botswana and Ghana have strengthened regulatory quality and public financial management. Digital governance reforms such as e procurement, digital IDs and automated tax systems are reducing leakages. Tax to GDP ratios are rising. Domestic revenue mobilisation is rising in Kenya. Non oil exports for the first time in decades superseded oil exports in Nigeria. These quiet institutional gains do not trend, but they build states.
And then there is Africa’s youth, often framed as a burden but in reality one of the continent’s strongest sources of leverage. Young Africans are building in fintech, logistics, health, agriculture and the creative economy. Many are not waiting for permission or external validation.
So yes, I am bullish on Africa. Not because of sentiment, but because the fundamentals are shifting even with real risks attached.
Where Africa goes next will depend on how we organise ourselves and how we choose to tell our story.
If we do not shape the narrative, others will and their version will not serve our interests.This is the moment to reclaim the microphone.
To speak with confidence. To build with intention. To insist on a narrative that matches our ambition.
Dr Wale Osofisan is the senior director of the Governance Technical Unit at the International Rescue Committee (IRC)
