President Bola Ahmed Tinubu of All Progressive Congress (APC), who was the former governor of Lagos State, Nigeria’s 16th and the country’s first president from Lagos State since independence, remains a polarising figure over a year into his tenure. Some Nigerians view Tinubu as a seasoned political strategist capable of delivering on his ‘ambitious’ reforms. Among them are Senator Urji Uzor Kalu, the Etsu Karu and Chairman Karu Local Government Area Traditional Council in Nasarawa State, Luka Panya Baba, a public affairs analyst, Adamu Salisu, Director General of the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA), and APC Chieftain in Rivers State, Chief Tony Okocha. On the contrary, some are increasingly critical of his administration’s approach to governance, especially in handling key issues like the economy, security, and social justice. Among them are the 2023 Presidential candidate of African Action Congress (AAC), and human rights activist, Omoyele Sowore, Senator Dino Melaye, who represented Kogi West Senatorial District in the 8th Nigerian National Assembly, a former National Vice Chairman (North West) of APC, Dr Salihu Lukuman, 2023 presidential candidate of Labour Party and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Peter Obi, and Atiku Abubakar respectively.
Since his inauguration on May 29, 2023, Tinubu has moved swiftly to implement a range of policies aimed at stabilizing the nation’s economy, promoting transparency, and addressing deep-rooted social issues. Yet, opinions are starkly divided over his leadership style and the results of his policies.
Premium Times quoted the African Polling Institute (API) saying that the results of a survey it carried out show that at least 84 per cent of people expressed profound sadness with the current state of affairs in the country under Tinubu, and 81 per cent said that the president is driving the country in the wrong direction. The Newspaper said, “The latest API national survey brings to light a stark reality, said Bell Ihua, the API’s executive director. Hunger, poverty, and dissatisfaction are the harsh realities of President Bola Tinubu’s one year in office. In terms of the biggest challenges facing the country under Tinubu’s stewardship, 36 per cent of respondents said hunger, 28 per cent identified with inability to meet basic needs and 13 per cent said unemployment. This is followed by heightened insecurity (9 per cent) and poor electricity supply (5 per cent).”
Tinubu’s supporter cite economic reforms and political savvy to prove that the president is on a good course. For many Nigerians, particularly those who have followed Tinubu’s political career from his time as Lagos State governor, the president’s economic reforms are a much-needed corrective measure to Nigeria’s long-standing challenges. His decision to remove fuel subsidies – a controversial move that caused initial public uproar—has been praised in some quarters as a bold step toward economic sustainability.
A Lagos businessman, Adebayo Olusegun, believes Tinubu’s actions are necessary for long-term growth. Olusegun said, “It is tough now, but we need to look beyond immediate discomfort. The fuel subsidy was bleeding the country dry. President Tinubu is tackling hard issues head-on. He has experience, and I believe he will deliver if given time.”
Also, the National Operations Controller of Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN)), Mike Osatuyi, described the removal as a welcome development geared towards revamping the downstream sector of the oil and gas industry. Saying that the subsidy removal is the first step toward Tinubu’s fulfilment of the campaign promises, Osatuyi said that the money used on subsidy would be diverted to develop other sectors. He stressed that the subsidy removal would lead to market liberalisation, availability of products, and check excesses of middlemen. Sharing this view are the Managing Director of 11 PLC, former Executive Secretary of the Major Oil Marketers Association of Nigeria Tunji Oyebanji, former chairman of SPE Nigeria Council, Joe Nwakwue, and the nation’s governors. The Vice President (Africa) of the Global Legislators Organisation for a Balanced Environment (GLOBE) and sponsor of Nigeria’s Climate Change Art, 2021, pointed out that Tinubu deserves commendation for being bold and courageous enough to remove the fuel subsidy. While praising Tinubu for his boldness in removing fuel subsidy, the National Coordinator of the African Parliamentary Network on Climate Action, Maren Solomon, affirmed that fuel subsidy was like a time bomb waiting to explode, which Tinubu has courageously averted.
Indeed, Tinubu’s supporters highlight his decades-long political career and ability to unite various factions across Nigeria’s diverse political landscape. A chieftain of the Young Progressive Party (YPP), Buraimoh Peter, attested that Tinubu would unite the nation, stressing that his government would unite the country the more. Besides, Tinubu’s leadership of the APC is widely credited with solidifying the party’s dominance at the federal level.
However, the rising cost of living as a result of Tinubu’s economic policies and his inability to stem insecurity has continued to be worrisome to the critics. For many ordinary Nigerians, the early months of Tinubu’s presidency have been challenging, with rising inflation, unemployment, and a deteriorating security situation dampening optimism. The removal of fuel subsidies, although praised in economic circles, led to an immediate hike in the cost of living, with fuel prices skyrocketing and transportation costs affecting the prices of goods and services. A teacher in Kano, Amina Usman, expressed her frustration, “We were promised change, but so far, the only change I see is how much everything has become expensive. People are suffering more than before.” A university lecturer said that he had to sell his car battery to buy food for his family, claiming that he did not have up to N30, 000 in his bank account.
A self-employed man, Ayobami Okerinde said that the decision to remove oil subsidy look good on paper but it has not reflected in the country, which is the most important metric. He stated, “A policy or decision could look great, but without a positive impact, it’s as good as bad. The president and his team should take another look at their decisions so far to ensure the citizens are enjoying the dividends of democracy.” ”People are now finding it difficult to get food to eat. I advise that he (Tinubu) should review some of the policies”, Balarabe Yusuf Gojida, a civil servant in Kano added.
Findings revealed that at the end of the first year of Tinubu, inflation, for the first time in two decades rose to 31.7 per cent as wages and salaries of civil servants have remained stagnant since 2018, since the new minimum wages have not been implemented. As of June 2024, inflation jumped up to 34.19 per cent. The poverty levels are projected to increase to 38.8 per cent in 2024. This made the President of the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) call for the return of fuel subsidy and the reversal of other policies to make life easy and meaningful. As of today, subsidy realities show petrol being sold between N865 to N1, 300.
Security remains another key concern. Despite promises to tackle insurgencies in the North and banditry in rural areas, violence continues to claim lives in several states. While the government has increased military presence in high-risk areas, critics argue that these efforts are yet to translate into tangible improvements in safety as terrorists are still having field days. For instance, coordinated suicide attacks by terrorists claimed the lives of at least 18 people and 19 injured people in the Gwoza Area of NorthEastern Nigeria on June 30, 2024. On September 4, 2024, ALJAZERA quoted the Police Public Relations Officer (PPRO) in Yobe State, Dungus Abdulkarim saying that around 150 suspected Boko Haram terrorists armed with rifles and RPGs attacked Mafa ward on more than 50 motorcycles and killed many people as well as burning many shops and houses. It was claimed that at least 81 people were killed in the attack. The southern part of Nigeria is not insulated from terror attacks in the form of kidnapping for ransom and rituals and banditry.
Human rights groups have also raised concerns over certain government policies. Amnesty International’s Nigeria branch recently issued a statement accusing the Tinubu administration of not doing enough to protect civilians from extrajudicial killings, kidnappings, and police brutality. These issues resonate with younger Nigerians, many of whom still carry the memories of the #EndSARS protests in 2020 against police misconduct. The recent indicator of human rights violation by the Nigerian government is the arrest of 124 #Endbadgovernance protesters and remanded for 60 days. Following this, is the trial of 10 out of this number on treason, alleging that the protesters attempted to overthrow the government of President Tinubu. Justice Emeka Nwite ordered that nine of the male suspects be remanded at Kuje Prison and the only female be remanded at the Suleja prison in Niger State. This violation has been condemned far and wide.
The youth are also skeptical about the current political dispensation, calling for social justice. Nigerian youth, who make up a significant portion of the electorate, claim not to be less than 70 per cent of the entire population, remain vocal in their demands for jobs, better education, and social justice. While Tinubu’s administration has initiated programmes targeting youth unemployment, including entrepreneurship initiatives, the scale of the challenges remains daunting.
A 24-year-old entrepreneur from Enugu, Grace Eze, reflected the sentiments of many in her generation and said, “We have seen these types of promises before, and nothing changes. I am still waiting to see how this government will genuinely help young people.” Eze’s scepticism highlights a growing divide between the political class and the average Nigerian. Many believe that Tinubu’s administration, much like previous ones, is too far removed from the everyday struggles of citizens.
Looking ahead in the face of the realities, the question is that can Tinubu win over critics? As President Tinubu is in the fourth month of his second year in office, some Nigerians remain cautiously optimistic, hoping that his administration’s economic reforms will eventually yield positive outcomes. However, the road ahead is fraught with challenges, especially as the president seeks to balance economic austerity measures with the urgent need for social relief programs.
Political analyst, Ifedayo Ogunleye suggests that Tinubu’s legacy would largely depend on his ability to navigate these complex realities. He said, “President Tinubu is an experienced politician who understands the complexities of Nigerian governance. But experience alone won’t be enough. He must deliver concrete results that improve the lives of everyday Nigerians.”
The coming months would be critical in determining how Tinubu is ultimately perceived by the Nigerian public. While his supporters see him as a transformative figure, capable of guiding Nigeria through a difficult but necessary restructuring, his critics remain unconvinced that his policies will bring relief to a populace burdened by years of economic instability and insecurity. As the nation’s leader, Tinubu continues to elicit strong reactions from Nigerians across different sectors and age groups. Whether he would emerge as a reformer who brought lasting change or a leader whose promises fell short will depend on the administration’s ability to bridge the gap between ambitious reforms and the realities facing millions of citizens.
