Every election cycle in Nigerian politics usually blesses Nigerian academia with new political term to toy with. Coalition was the order in 2015, this same year gave us concept like ‘retaliatory vote’, ‘block vote’ etc. Jagaban, a political term used by Late Alao Akala became a concept for ratiocination for me before Edmund Obilo began to question the concept. The 2023 election cycle takes the dimension of “Wave”, “Tsunami” and “Hurricane”, ascribing the popularity of certain set of individuals, their vote, popularity and victory of certain individuals to this phenomenon.
“Have you heard of Obi Tsunami, Tinubu Hurricane, and Kwankwaso Wave?”
“Is it true that the Obi Tsunami is giving Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu sleepless night in Lagos? Why is Seyi Makinde this calm in Agodi GRA with election days away despite the Tinubu Hurricane in the just concluded Presidential and National Assembly election?”
I watch the way Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State was rattled by Rufai Oseni and Reuben Abati on Arise Tv. I am assured he was prepared for this, telling from his face cap and polo T-shirt. I bet he was prepared for what is coming. Also, Rufai has been a major critic of the current structure of Lagos State politics, Tinubu and the All Progressive Party in general. Governor Sanwo-Olu is aware of the deep anger within the cosmopolitan population in Lagos. EndSars is forever fresh in mind, the perceived oppression by agents and personality backed up by the state government, the impounding of vehicles etc. Fortunately, the Labour Party and the opposition party play on this sentiment to harangue policy of the government and the structure. This they do in tact and craft. Mention OBI and all sins are forgiven, speak against Labour Party and receive the stone. At the name of Labour Party, all doors are open that even the Governor cannot close. I wonder if this is not the same house Bola Ahmed Tinubu lord over as the landlord. In fact, staunch supporters of Bola Ahmed Tinubu agree that the city boy sacrificed Lagos to take the country. Is Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu part of this sacrifice?
I feel for Babajide Sanwo-Olu at this point in time. All indices point to the reality that the landlord might not be able to save him at this point in time. The sin of the landlord is about to be visited on the housekeeper; even the country boy still need to explain how he got the vote in Rivers State and some other States at the tribunal. He still needs to explain the formula used by some of our Professors to arrive at their calculation.
Oyo State Governor, Abiodun Seyi Makinde also shares the same conundrum above, but in different dimensions. Fortunately for him, the political mathematics is looking good at the moment. Just like the Obi Tsunami, the Tinubu Hurricane was a major factor on 15th February 2023, In fact, some of the youth, including party agents of other parties, cast their ballot, for his influence robbed off on every other election that day. Tinubu’s victory in Oyo state can be pinned on various dynamic that comes to play before and during the election. The state Governor’s body language; in fact, it is very rare to see the Governor’s picture and that of its presidential candidates side by side. The acrimony within the Governor and the party’s presidential candidate was visible for all to see. The ethnic sentiment the country’s political space is known for also played a major role in Oyo state.
Opinion is divided on the impact of this political inaction, move or indecision of the Governor, Seyi Makinde. Be it as it may, the party at the state level suffered colossal loss at the National Assembly election, while the major casualty remain the party flag bearers and candidates, including those closest to the Governor, especially Bisi Ilaka, the former Chief of Staff to the Governor. Of a fact, the party lost all the senatorial seats to APC while the results from the House of Representatives was a disaster for the party. In all this, I monitored Governor Seyi Makinde’s interview on state affairs on a Radio program anchored by Ace broadcaster, Edmund Obilo, few days to the gubernatorial election before its postponement. I noticed his calmness and demeanor. I observed how he explained the party’s monumental loss at the polls on 25th February. At a point in the interview, he mentioned the fact that analyst and experts already warned the party of this consequence and he is fully aware of it. For him, he is politically safe.
To the opposition party in the state, the Tinubu Hurricane is what can be leverage on to unseat the man called the Agodi, their advert and jiggle after the declaration of the presidential results attest to this: “Ijobà okè ni ko wa nisale” meaning “the government at the state level should align with the government at the centre”. Putting it out that the state cannot afford to be the opposition party come next government.
It is visible to the blind and audible to the deaf that the Obi factor is a major factor on whatever plays out in Lagos state. Ethnic affiliation and dynamics coupled with the state Governor’s body language serve as a springboard for APC to take Oyo state in the Presidential election in the state, which favors the landlord of Lagos. Same cannot be said of Osun State where the incumbent Governor, Ademola Adeleke jettisoned ethnic affiliation to deliver the state for his party, PDP. The impact of the two waves must not be treated in the same light. The advent of Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu in Alausa can be ascribed to the influence and affluence of the Landlord of Lagos and the clientele structure in the state. This structure has been in place since 1999 till date. This structure has been a major point of conflict between the ruling elite, the middle class, a section of the youth, and the cosmopolitan city dwellers/business class in Lagos. The structure, as the people believe, has been a major instrument of oppression and suppression in the state while the way the state government handled the EndSars protest would always be a major talking point.
The same can’t be said in Oyo state. Coalition has always been a winning formula in Oyo state politics albeit with some level of support from key stakeholders’, i.e. the Oke Ogun vote, Ogbomosho vote, Oyo vote and others. For instance, different interest had to align to secure Makinde’s victory in 2019. At that point in time, the people were simply tired of Late Abiola Ajimobi’s government and his perceived high handedness against the traditional rulers, the youth and a section of the middle class. Don’t forget “Mr Constituted Authority” paid the price by losing his senatorial bid to Senator Lekan Balogun, the only senatorial constituency loss by his party. Let’s not forget that this is post Adedibu’s Oyo state where godfatherism no longer get that recognition as it used to, though some of its legacies still echoes in the state in the mode of Auxiliary and his NURTW boys rehabilitated into PMS (Park Management System).
Seyi, in his political game, technically eliminated or dismantled the coalition that brought him to power, doing away with the likes of Mulikat Akande-Adeola, Hazeem Gbolarunmi and Rashidi Ladoja, even his deputy was not spared. At a point, the major complaint against his government is that he does not know how to “settle politicians”. In doing this, the Governor embarked on populist projects, winning the people to his side. Traders are allowed to display their wares at major road, motor park created for the boys to continue their extortion legally, retirees are paid, 13th months’ salary became a norm for civil servant. As security deteriorates, the popularity of the Governor soars. Anything to make the Governor popular, Makinde simply played to the sentiment of the people, using the post Ajimobi’s template. He might not know what the people want, but he knows what they don’t want. The people don’t want grammar, they don’t want somebody lording over them, they don’t want to be chased away from the road, and they don’t want a Governor disrespecting their kings. Makinde simply immersed himself in this sentiment and consciousness of the people making himself the darling bride of the population, sacrificing whoever and whatever policy deems to be anti-people. His party is also not spared in this political carnage as long as his second term ambition is achieved. Hence, it is about “God save the Governor, not the party”.
In conclusion, while all seems clear for Governor Seyi Makinde to coast to victory at the governorship polls in Oyo state, same cannot be said for Babajide Sanwo-Olu in Lagos state, and even the landlord could not save himself. The acrimony, animosity, cosmopolitan population coupled with ethnic bias in Lagos state political atmosphere would be a major factor for whoever would occupy Alausa come May 29th. The EndSars is a wound Lagosians are ready to open any day and the opposition parties are ready to cash on. At this point in time, the people don’t care if a Ghanaian or Togolese find his way into Alausa as long as he is running on the platform of Labour Party with Peter Obi on his lips and Labour Party logo on his face cap. Anything to show Tinubu how unhappy they are about his Lagos, the Lagos he claims he built and their “stolen” Obidient mandate.
David I. Ogbezode
LORDKÉWÉ
